Marti Leimbach
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Boom or bust? Authors are used to it
 
At various times in the past few weeks we have seen the FTSE below 3800 and the Dow at 7552, as the world’s most powerful businesses set new records for their 52-week lows. It seems impossible that Google could be trading at $259 when only a matter of months ago it had been at $724, as last I looked we were all still using search engines. The tobacco company, Philip Morris, is now apparently worth 35% less than in August. Have I missed something or should I believe that in a matter of months the world has given up smoking?

With the confidence of 20:20 hindsight investors are now saying these companies were “overvalued”. Today’s new price tags may reflect what is “fair value” , may be below value, or we may see more market falls. It’s a volatile market, a shocker for most of us, though such wild fluctuation is less surprising for me. I’ve seen this played out time and again in publishing, where authors are traded much like stocks and our relative worth is described by terms as mysterious as those of the companies that comprise the FTSE100.

What an author is “worth” is an interesting question. Ironically, the authors who are “worth” the most are either those who consistently move a lot of product, or unknowns. The unknowns do surprisingly well with their initial author advances (what we are paid when we sign a contract with a publisher) and are sold on “promise”. For the most part, publishers are more speculators than investors, and are attracted to the possibilities a newcomer brings.

The newcomer, of course, does not understand this. A first time author can easily believe that the early enthusiasm and monetary reward that comes with the first book will be followed by even greater enthusiasm and money the next time around. Just as we can fool ourselves into thinking that a rising stock is likely to keep rising, we can believe our careers are flourishing when all that has happened is that we are getting our ticker name in the market, the possibility to go up or down. A new writer – and especially a novelist -- is a small cap no matter what the advance is, a dotcom which could hit big or vanish completely. Getting published gives you a seat at the table, but don’t get too comfortable there.

It is a great thing when a book sells well – at least, for a while. The author will be celebrated, the news will be favorable, and everyone will agree that the future looks bright. The second book comes along, commanding a good price and the author begins to think that maybe they’ve beat the odds and will make it in this indomitable industry.

And they may have – plenty of authors have three, five, even ten books to their names and thank God for it. But a big success may be the beginning of a future career disaster. The next book may sell for so high an advance that it has little chance of earning back the money. Soon, the numbers are in the red and the value associated with the author will fall now with the second book. This is exactly what happens in the stock market when a particular Plc is “overbought”. There’s no room to make any money on it and nowhere for the stock to go but downhill. In the case of the author, everyone will complain she was overpaid. She may even find herself on some hideous list of “failed” books in The Bookseller. Then, it will be the third book that suffers. Indeed, the author may not get a chance with a third book.

I once asked an agent if it would help if authors did not accept over-inflated advances that create “a bubble” like the recent ones we’ve seen burst in the financial markets. By refusing the big numbers so that a book would “earn out” and reflect a positive balance sheet could we authors sustain longer publishing careers?

The answer was no. He’d tried that once and all that happened was the author got less money and the book was published badly. So the author lost her chance with the book and didn’t even enjoy the money. “You want to know the lesson there?” he said. “Take the money.”

Every author hopes her publisher will behave like an investor, not a speculator. She hopes they will “buy and hold” their authors because they believe in the quality of the work. I worry we are losing good authors who will give up, thinking they can’t make it because of one or two blips in their career. I worry that publishers are forgetting that every new book is an entrepreneurial venture, rising or falling for reasons that go well beyond how “good” the author is, and may have nothing to do with the book at all. Every title has its own potential, and unlike a stock there is a great deal that a book’s investors can do to ensure its success.

I can remember when Financials were considered “safe” stock, and further back, when the whole of the technology sector was understood as the only place to be investing. Oh, how the mighty do fall. We are a capricious and herd-following race and none of us – not publishers, not writers, not agents or book clubs or ordinary readers – know what is going to do well in the future. But publishers who are nurturing the writers they have, and cautiously investing in ones they think may bring new delight to readers, are the ones who will do well in the long run. Stock-pickers will tell you there is “no five year money” in the market. The best investors are the ones who know value when they see it, and hold onto it when they do.
 
Saturday, December 13, 2008 | 21:36:34
Comment by
 
Hi Judy, Glad to hear I am not the only person made to wait, though it is painful to hear that some authors wait THREE YEARS! I suppose you could always write under different names and then have more of a chance of getting your books published before you''ve forgotten what on earth they were about, but I have a feeling it has become unfashionable to have pen names. I suggested the idea to a publisher once and it was as though I was suggesting some vaguely criminal behavior. Given the current economic climate I suppose I ought to be grateful my novel is being published in my lifetime.....
 
Sunday, March 15, 2009 | 19:49:37
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